From Defense News

August 6-12, 2001

Unilateral Steps Undermine Foreign Security

By Walter Uhler

Notwithstanding the warmth and chemistry resulting from U.S. President George W. Bush's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16 and July 22, the latter quite clearly, if diplomatically, warned the American leader about the risks associated with any unilateral action regarding the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty or national missile defense (NMD).

As he noted at the post-summit news briefing: "And taking into account the fact that the United States and the Russian Federation, as no one else, as no other country of the world, have accumulated huge amounts of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction, we bear a special responsibility for maintaining the common peace and security in the world, for building a new architecture of security in the world."

"All of this presupposes a very close cooperation for strengthening security in the 21st century. And saying this, any unilateral actions can only complicate various problems and issues."

Two days later, Putin said that if the United States proceeded with a missile defense without Russia's agreement, his country would increase its nuclear inventory by placing multiple warheads on existing missiles. Thus, America would be responsible, not only for the collapse of the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, but also the Strategic Reduction Talks (START) 1 and START 2 arms control treaties.

The prospects for avoiding such an arms race improved slightly on July 22 in Genoa, when Bush and Putin announced a new round of arms-control negotiations in which, according to Putin, "offensive arms and the issue of defensive arms will be discussed as a set. " Putin appeared willing to discuss changes to the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty in return for cuts in offensive nuclear weapons, but also reaffirmed that Russia would place multiple warheads on existing missiles "in the event that one side comes out unilaterally."

Negotiations will please audiences, in Western Europe and China, as well as in Russia and America. They strengthen Bush's credibility and will provide political cover in the event they break down and compel unilateral actions.

But they also strengthen the hand of those Democrats now controlling the Senate who seek to clarify the cost and technical feasibility of a system that is nowhere near deployment, notwithstanding the $60 billion already sunk into the program.

As Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, observed during a July 22 appearance on CNN's "Late Edition," "This implies, at least to me ... this administration will not break out of the [Antiballistic Missile treaty] in the meantime."

But they complicate the political lives of those right-wing unilateralists in the Bush administration and Congress who entertained hopes that the president's swings through Europe would grease the skids for National Missile Defense. And they hardly square with reports (such as that by The New York Times on July 19) that "the Bush administration has already decided that it ' will not accept a new agreement that limits the development of antimissile defenses. 'We don't want to have formal restrictions on development, testing and deployment,' a senior administration official said."

Right-wing unilateralism is responsible for U.S. failure to seize the historic opportunity, offered by former Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev, of a policy of "common security" to shape a new world order. By basing his foreign policy on the revolutionary premise that "my country can't be secure unless my potential adversary is secure," Gorbachev undercut both his and our militarists and brought the Cold War to a peaceful conclusion.

Many Europeans find our unilateralism to be unjustified and arrogant; witness the official disagreements and popular protests that confronted Bush during his recent trip to Europe.

Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson only restated the obvious when he observed that the European Union is "one of the few institutions we can develop as a balance to U.S. world dominance."

More ominous, however, are the accumulating grievances being nurtured by Russia and China. Our programs for missile defense and the militarization of space genuinely disturb both countries. Consequently, U.S. assurances that neither missile defense nor further NATO expansion are directed at Russia or China carry little weight with those Russians.

They believe the United States reneged on its 1989-90 pledge (to Russia) not to expand NATO. Some Chinese say that America's recent embrace of Taiwan contradicts the U.S. pledge, in 1972, to ultimately withdraw "all U.S. forces and military institutions from Taiwan."

A decade of American unilateralism has forced two potential rivals to unite.

On July 16, Russia and China signed an historic Friendship Treaty in Moscow. Given this Sino-Russian embrace, Sergei Rogov, a senior Kremlin adviser and director of Moscow's prestigious U.S.-Canada Institute, has asserted: "We have a window of 18 months to fix the Russian-American relationship because by the year 2003, three negative trends could combine. The first would be a unilateral U.S. decision to deploy missile defenses. The second would be NATO enlargement. The third would be a decline of the oil price, and Russia unable to service its foreign debt in 2003."

Fortunately, judging by recent polling data, the American electorate is of a mind to rebuff the conservative unilateralists on missile defense. According to a Feb. 7-11 ABC News poll, 48 percent opposed missile defense "if it broke an existing treaty with Russia." Only 31 percent approved of missile defense in those circumstances.

Arguably, the Democratic Senate and the American electorate possess the power to eliminate this potentially disastrous, but quite unnecessary, grievance.

Walter C. Uhler is an independent scholar and freelance writer whose work has been published in numerous publications, including The Nation, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Journal of Military History, the Moscow Times and the San Francisco Chronicle. He also is President of the Russian-American International Studies Association (RAISA).

waltuhler@aol.com